What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompeo. Know most of you know me as pump. You're listening to the pump podcast. Simply the best podcast out there. Now. Let's kick this thing off. Today's episode is titled. There is no return to normal. And as I do this solo episode, all I'm talking about is the idea that the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates and
why that may not be happening at the rate or severity that most people think,
I really enjoy recording these solo episodes and I hope you guys enjoyed this one as well before we get into
It though, I first want to talk about our sponsors. This episode is brought to you by block fight. Block 5 provides Financial products for crypto investors. Those products include the block by wallet, a u.s. Dollar loan, collateralized by your crypto and a no fee trading product block by also released the world's first crypto rewards credit card. It's a Visa credit card that gives you crypto back as your rewards instead of cash back or airline miles. They recently introduced rewards Flex so customers choose which crypto assets. They receive from their credit card. Rewards From the Block by rewards credit card for
In the US who owned or interested in owning crypto, we're stacking more SATs the block by rewards credit card provides the easiest way to earn more crypto because you earn one point five percent back in crypto on every single purchase and you have no annual fee. I'm an investor in the business and a very, very happy user. The block by rewards. Credit card is the easiest way to earn crypto for a limited time. When you sign up using my link block five.com pump CC, you will get $75 back in crypto in your first swipe.
Use your everyday spending to diversify your Krypton portfolio. I've got the credit card. I love it. And I think you will too head on over to block Phi.com pump CC today. Next up is Choice. It's time to stop paying capital gains taxes on your Bitcoin and choices here to help choices rebuilding the way bitcoiners approach, retirement by making it possible to invest in Bitcoin and 19 other digital assets inside your IRA. Right. Now, every time you make a trait, you have to pay capital gains taxes that can be as high as 37.
10% Choice, enables you to trade real Bitcoin, other cryptos and stocks without having to pay a dime in capital gains the best part. They just released an IOS app. So you can open an account in less than 10 minutes and take control of your future from the palm of your hand. Join me in the 20,000 of the bitcoiners who have started their tax, efficient stack and open your choice account today search Stacks at in the app store or visit Choice. App dot IO / pump again, search stack SATs in the app store or visit.
Royce app, dot IO, / pop, and one more thing. If you want to hold your private Keys Choice. Lets you do that to start stacking tax-efficient satoshi's today and visit Choice app dot IO / pump. This episode is brought to you by crypto today.com exchanges, got decentralized money. Got decentralized and the only bottleneck is the very sites list in the mall. Crypto today.com is like decentralized. Coin market cap is the first of its kind there's no bribes. No connections.
Or heavy fees are needed to get listed. Like on the centralized sites. You can simply request on the blockchain and disperse. The prize on chained to the community and get fact-checked by thousands of eager crypto users, crypto today.com treats, very differently. There's no presale. No VC, money. And all of the team is locked up for at least one year. All the centralized competitors have valuations in the billions of dollars, crypto today.com started out at zero dollars as the
Decentralized token information site. You can read the white paper at crypto today.com. Again. Go to crypto today.com to learn more. All right, let's get this episode. I hope you guys enjoyed this one, Anthony promptly. Ah, no runs pop Investments, all views of him and the guests on his podcast, our sholay, their opinions, and do not reflect the opinions of pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression,
Of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes.
Only. Good morning. Everyone. Bang, bang. There's a significant amount of fear in the market right now, and people have been watching as risk assets have sold off aggressively since the November 20 21 highs, which can be partially attributed to the federal reserve's focus on talking tough about quantitative tightening. Although, it took the FED months to act, we are now seeing the Central Bank, raised interest rates and taper many of the monetary stimulus programs that they were previously pursuing even though growth and risk.
Says, have already fallen, the Federal Reserve is talking about becoming more aggressive with their quantitative, tightening over the next few months and potentially through the rest of this year. But I don't know if I believe them regardless of how much tough talk the FED has engaged in. There's only been an interest rate, increase of 25 basis points. So far, that was enough to usher in an annualized economic contraction of - 1.4 percent in the United States and a negative twenty two percent growth for the NASDAQ. Index. How much more can the FED really raise interest rates?
Rates if we are already likely in a recession Trend, well, that is the problem. Most investors and Market participants are refusing to acknowledge the slowing growth and probable recession in my opinion. They will wait until Q3 when it is smacking them in their head before they start to admit. It. This leads me to a fairly obvious prediction, but one that seems to be contrarian at the moment, the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates before the end of 2020. To the idea here is that further interest rate increases will only accelerate
The United States economy into a recession as things get worse will become harder for the Federal Reserve to remain committed to their quantitative. Tightening plan, add in the fact that midterm elections are coming up. And it seems like a foregone conclusion that the FED will be pressured to address any recessionary period on a shortened timeline. So how do you prevent the negative impact of recessionary forces you cut interest rates and return to a quantitative easing strategy. What is worse than inflation for politicians recessions? If I am correct the Federal Reserve.
Don't just cut rates by the end of the year, but they will have to admit defeat and they're tightening efforts and re-engage their full QE toolbox. That is definitely not priced into the market at the moment. As I pulled Twitter over the last few days, only 34% of people that answered my Twitter poll this weekend agreed, that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates before the end of 2020. To this may then lead you to ask well what is priced into the market at the moment. According to Charlie below. He said the market is currently pricing in a year-end fed funds.
Eat of 2.75. 23 percent up from only 2.5 25 percent today.
Expectations from the FED funds. Futures, 50 basis. Point hike in May all the way until 25 basis point hike in December, the idea of the Federal Reserve increasing rates 2.5% or more after the economy is already growing at - 1.4 percent is insane. If the Fed showcase complete incompetence on the way up via inflation, this would be a Showcase of the most ridiculous level of incompetence. We have ever seen by fed leadership, team on the way down in the market. Hiking interest rates that 3% after
Economy is already in a recession, would be a financial Armageddon that we haven't seen in decades. I'm not arguing that the FED shouldn't hike interest rates. Right now, nor am I arguing that they won't continue to raise interest rates more this year, but I am arguing that they won't be able to raise rates as aggressively nor for as long as people are anticipating. There are quite a few investors who have been taking to Twitter newsletters podcasts or the media to claim that we will see a 2000 style, clear, out of bad companies and bubbles popping the problem with that.
The theory is that the market is no longer a free market, the Federal Reserve and increasingly elected officials won't allow investors in citizens to suffer. Once. They began to manipulate the market. With quantitative easing. They can never stop for long periods of time. There is no returning to normal. We are living in The New Normal manipulated fed run markets or the default. Now, you think people were pissed when they had to pay more for everyday Goods. At the same time at their investment portfolios were increasing in value. Wait till you see people's reaction when they're in.
In portfolios are losing material percentages, and the price of goods are still high. That situation is coming faster than you think. So, what is the solution here? To be honest? I don't think the FED has a winning hand to play. They should have never intervened in the market in the first place. But because they did the market volatility was only going to increase as the FED became responsible for steering the ship. It is impossible for any group of humans to navigate and on Kana me between High inflation and recession with the periodic use of interest rates and expanding, and Contracting.
A money supply. This is a losing game in the FED, is losing handily right now. Free markets, eventually solved the problem, but we don't have free markets anymore. We have markets that are so manipulated by the Federal Reserve. That all you have to do is adhere to the old adage. Don't fight the FED, that is the winning investment strategy. These days, just listen to the Federal Reserve and do what they tell you to do. You would look like a genius over the last decade, if that's all you had done the latter. I hear people screaming in fear of increasing rates, and falling asset prices. The more bullish I get
As a friend recently told me the only way you can be long-term bearish in this scenario is if you're willing to bet on the United States economy failing that isn't a bet I'm willing to take and I doubted some bet any of you would take either the Federal Reserve is going to keep playing their fake Confidence Game. They'll raise rates and try to talk tough. But ultimately the FED will succumb to the macro forces at play. The recession is already here. You can't ignore it forever. My guess is that? We'll get at least one interest rate hike, I'm sorry that will get at least one interest rate cut.
By the end of the year, my confidence level is probably around 70%. Nothing is changing in my portfolio or investment strategy. I'm a long term bull. I'm bullish on technology. I'm bullish on the United States, and I'm bullish on bitcoin. Those themes are wrong over the next few years that I'm not sure I want to be right. Hope each of you has a great day, and I'll talk to everyone tomorrow.
Thanks so much for listening to today's episode. I really hope you guys enjoyed this one. Make sure you're subscribed on Apple Spotify or your favorite podcast player. And if you're
In to try to transition to get a new job in the Bitcoin of crypto industry. We've got you covered head over to Pomp's. Crypto course.com., We've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry. It's a three week, intensive training program with over 50 events. Packed into that three week time, period. Go to Palm scripto, course.com to learn more and I'll meet you guys for the next
episode.
