Ray Dalio | Principles of an Investing Pioneer Part One

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show. You have to have the best life possible. That's the main thing if you have the best life possible and in some clarity as to what that is and you're using money to help get there. That's terrific great, but don't make money itself the goal.

Welcome to the show. I'm

Jordan Harbinger on the Jordan Harbinger show. We decode the stories secrets and skills of the World's Most Fascinating People. If you're new to the show, we have in-depth conversations with people at the top of their game astronauts entrepreneurs spies psychologists, even the occasional Russian chess Grandmaster in each show turns our guests wisdom into practical advice that you can use to build a deeper understanding of how the world works and become a better critical thinker today one of the hundred most

Launch all people alive according to Time Magazine. He began investing at age 12 and now has over a hundred and sixty billion dollars under management at his company Bridgewater and Associates. It's no surprise. He's known as the Steve Jobs of investing. Of course. We not only discuss investing in the macroeconomy the current recession and covid economy, but also radical transparency decision making mental models and why he's partially responsible. Love it or hate it for bringing the chicken McNuggets into the world. I've got ten pages of notes. I

We have less than half that for 90 minute interview. So pardon me if I start bouncing around a bit because there's so much value here lots to cover. So let's dive into this episode today here with Ray dalio. And by the way, if you're wondering how I managed to book all these great authors thinkers and celebrities every single week. It's because of my network. I'm teaching you how to build your network for free over at Jordan Harbinger.com course, and by the way, most of the guests on the show already subscribe to the course, so come join us. You'll be in smart company now, here's part one of two.

With Ray dalio, there are so many places to begin with a ray dalio interview. So instead of just focusing on radical transparency, which we'll get to I wanted to dive into something first that you've written more recently about the changing World Order which sounds ominous and maybe is I thought it was interesting that somebody who does investing that maybe some would consider short-term was so interested in cycles that were longer than our lifetimes in some

instances. Well the I learned a long time ago through a lot of different experiences.

That the things that surprised me most were things that hadn't happened to me in my lifetime before but happened many times before that like in 1971. I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and the currency was linked to Gold the United States couldn't pay its debts and it basically defaulted on its obligation to pay for its gold and I thought that's a crisis. I went down on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange expected, you know.

Terrible results and I saw that the stock market was up a lot and I realized that what happened that evening when Richard Nixon August 15th 1971 when that evening, he did the exact same thing that Franklin Roosevelt did on March 5th 1933, which was to break the link with gold and to devalue and I learned that if I didn't have an understanding.

The standing of things important things in the past like how the Great Depression happened and so on that I would be surprised and so I needed to and I need to today

surprise seems like the enemy of investing in many ways, right you wrote 18 months ago. I undertook this is a couple months ago now 18 months ago. I undertook a study of the Rises and declines of Empires their Reserve currencies and their markets prompted by my seeing a number of unusual developments that hadn't happened before.

My lifetime but that I knew had occurred numerous times in history. This was in March Global pandemic has to be on that list now. I don't know if it was when you wrote the piece, but I think now it's very clear that this is a an event that has happened before but not

during our lifetime, of course it is and I didn't have that one on the list because the last one that happened was in 1918 and it happened right at the end of world war one and so its effects I

Infused I didn't see it. It didn't show up in the numbers because of the economic impact that it had and the life impact. It had sort of happened at the same time as the war impact and post-war impact. So I missed it and it's so true, you know, it's happened repeatedly. So as a result, I've studied a whole bunch of them or tried to study as many as possible but there are things like droughts and floods.

And acts of Nature and so many different things that go beyond regular economics that have the biggest impact on our lives because they cost more lives than Wars and we're not even acquainted with any of that. You know today how many pandemics wars depressions revolutions and so on have we been through and they happen over and over again for the same

reasons? He said your biggest mistakes in your career came from missing big Market moves that

It happened in your lifetime, but it happened many times before just like we're discussing here. A lot of people are like this with the pandemic the recession were undoubtedly in right now. I think a lot of folks are saying well, I'm 58. This hasn't happened to me before so it can't really be happening right now. And this is not like a conscious thought it's just the underlying and we see it manifest when people are like, oh this is all overblown. It's a hoax or it's not really that big of a deal and I think it's just like it's a cognitive bias. It's like denial like I've never seen this so it can't possibly be happening. It can't possibly be

This

bad. Well, I think we should say what are the things were talking? What is it? There are three big things that are happening now that haven't happened in our lifetimes before but happened last time in the 1932 45 period and they are first a long term debt cycle that turns to the point where central banks can no longer ease monetary policy.

See by using interest rates and so on and so we're at the end of a long term debt cycle in which there has to be a lot of printing of money much like in March 1933 and that's a top. Hmm. Number two that there are wealth and opportunity gaps and values gaps, which are very large. So number one where we are in the debt cycle number 2.

That there are large gaps. And those are the sort of things that produce some form of Revolution revolutionary changes and number three. There's a rising power that is comparable to the existing world power that is challenging it like in the 30s and in the United States now with China and so I think when we look at the world, we have three big topics that we need to talk about there are more there.

There is technology in there is climate change and so on but let's start with those three those three have now happened in our lifetime and they're very big and important to understand.

Yeah. This is a lot of us don't have a blueprint for this in our experience. So we maybe try to sweep it under the rug or ignore it but debt low interest rates super high unemployment the wealth Gap, I mean, these are all things you've mentioned and we can dissect some of those later on as well. It's a we could spend the whole show talking about that. So I want to be careful that we

Because your piece which will link in the show notes on LinkedIn does a really good job of that. You said I believe the reason people typically miss the big moments of evolution coming at them in life is that we each experience only tiny pieces of what's Happening. We are like ants preoccupied with our jobs of carrying crumbs that are miniscule lifetimes instead of having a broader perspective of the big picture patterns and cycles and the important interrelated things driving them where we are in the Cycles Etc. So humans are repeating this pattern in history.

And Ethan, the only thing that changes of the clothes the characters are wearing in the Technologies. They're using I'm paraphrasing here. Of course, that's a little scary somehow.

I think scary means not understanding what is true and how to deal with it. So the question is is that true what I'm saying is when you look at the personalities through history, the personalities don't change the basic Dynamics doesn't change a debt cycle doesn't change conflicts don't change Empire.

Rise and decline all of these things change or as happen. I mean it would be naive being naive is scary. Okay, so I think the question is is this true and then how do you best deal with it? That makes it less scary.

So you've said this is a stress test. I mean is this something that I think a lot of people want to know? Is it inevitable that we're going to run into these problems and not handle them well, or is it hey look we have enough advance notice we can.

Work our way around this or do you just see the decline of the United States in the future

sort of the truth lies in between that so by being aware of what is health? What is strength? What is the nature of what's happening so that you can be aware of the choice of being stronger and dealing with these things. Well is a power is a great asset. So that's why I'm passing this along.

People are Sasson at the same time. You don't begin from scratch. There's a cycle. And so for example, the amount of debt that we have we have the amount of savings. We have we have so if you were to take a location, let's say a state I'll give that as an example. You can take the state of Connecticut. You could take a state and you could say well it's not like you're beginning with the fresh slate you

You do carry liabilities and you have circumstances and that's going to necessitate a heavier lift because you have to produce productivity. Like it's a Timeless and universal truth that what you get to consume and the quality of your living standards is a function of your productivity. And so you have to be able to mechanistically make the pie grow through productivity and

Have to be able to divide the pie. Well, so that people believe and it is a reality that there's something approaching equal opportunity. That's good for the majority of people those are realities and then you're faced with your existing circumstances. And then how do we work together to achieve those things or will we be at odds with each other and simply fight to our

detriment? How are you optimistic about us getting through this intact?

Like if you had to assign a percentage to it, would you be willing are you able to do

that? Let me Define. What is it? And how long does it take to okay. Hmm. Inevitably we will get through this meaning if you look at the cycles and you look at periods difficult periods that most difficult period in the 1932 45 period it led to all sorts of difficult stuff bad stuff and wars and all that but you got you ended it you got bastard. There's a new

Our and things resolve themselves and you enter a new period and so the capacity of humans to adapt and change and do things in certain ways is enormous but the likelihood of being able to work in an intelligent Cooperative way to do the right things in the system that we have under the circumstance that we have would have to be considered.

Long

shot. That's yeah. That's that's a little unnerving. I mean, do you feel that way or is it just this is the way that it is and we have to just accept it and move on and not have a feeling about it.

I think we now deal with psychology and the human species basically has the two parts to their brain. They have their logical part and then there's the emotional part and you don't want to let the emotion

Part stand in the way of the logical part in order to make the best decisions possible. You know, I'm an emotional person but I have to deal everyday in markets and make different gold decisions. And if I let that emotional hijacking take place, I would be in a bind. So when I look at such things I gained more comfort and confidence of thinking about well, what is true and reality?

Works the way reality works. It doesn't work the way we wish it would work. So we have to understand that and when you start to understand how reality works there's also a beauty to it. It's a perpetual motion machine. So for me, I'm very uncomfortable if I'm not doing that.

You're listening to the Jordan Harbinger show with our guest Ray. Dalio. We'll be right back. This episode is sponsored in part by Cuts clothing the t-shirt. It's a menswear staple, but it's long been plagued by horrible conditions you get shrinkage. You got bacon neck, you have color fade parachute fit wrinkles stretching holes, you know all that jazz or just they're rock hard Cuts clothing has completely changed the game. These shirts are comfortable AF you can wear them in the office. Not that we're going to the office anymore, but you can wear them on a

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I would love to hear what your take is on China because we're talking a little bit about debt trying has drowning in it and you've been going to China since the 80s,

right? 1984. Yeah. Fuck. Yeah, that's

incredible. I mean, you probably know more about that than most people.

I've been there more times than I can. Imagine I've and yes, so I would hope so. Yeah. What was I what was trying

to like in the 80s? I mean, I know you set up like the first would you call it private Equity organization in China,

but what I first went to China

China in 1984. It was just opening up Mal died in 76 1978 Deng Xiaoping came and he had an open door policy and so on. I was invited by a company by the name acidic which was the only company that was allowed to deal with the outside world. It was called a window company and they wanted to learn about the financial markets and what it was like was it was very, you know, everything was one or two stories very poor. I

Bring $10 calculators as gifts to high-ranking people and they thought they were Miracle devices and it was very ignorant of what the outside world was like and it was very backward on the other hand. The people were very intelligent the very civilized along the way I sent my son when he was 11 there to go to school in an all Chinese school and I saw what they were like the eagerness to learn they

were very cultivated civilized people who had been isolated from the rest of the world for a long time and were very ignorant of the things they needed to do in order to raise their living standards

going to school in China must have been an incredible experience. Do you recommend people seek out these extremely unique experiences. I mean, you could send your kid to France to go to school, but you knew China was something

special, you know each has their own belief of these things.

I believe that when you can see things from a very different perspective it broadens your ability to see things from different perspectives and to weigh things and I think it's exciting, but that's my own preference. And so I thought it will stretch my son. It'll stretch his thinking it'll be a great Growing Experience. And in his lifetime China will be quite something to hold Journey from that day until today.

Has been a remarkable journey, and so of course I wanted to send him there but you know, I had conversations with my wife who said are you kidding? We're going to send our eleven-year-old to China to be clear. He lived with a woman and her husband that we knew for many years before that and she was wonderful and he knew her but it was a poor situation because everybody was poor then so like he could only take hot

Hours twice a week because they only had hot water twice a week and he had to go to a school that was very poor, but very inclined to want to learn and value their kids. So the environment was a healthy environment, but yes, I knew it would stretch is mine. And I thought that was

good. I agree. I mean I've done a lot of studying and traveling abroad and I went to North Korea on a vacation four times and ran a company that worked there and people thought I was crazy but I agree with you like having that outside perspective.

That nobody else has gives you an angle that nobody else

has yeah, and it's also so damn flavorful so interesting and flavorful, right? It's almost like being in a character in an Indiana Jones movie, you know, it's who it's real mannequin to the perspective. So anyway, it's depends what your days are. Like

I heard you helped bring the Chicken McNugget onto the market. So I'd love to hear that story that on behalf of the

Stern World, thanks for that. I mean I think we all love a chicken

McNugget. How did that happen? Well, I was I formed Bridgewater then it was from rinky-dink little company. I was advising on Commodities because Commodities was my thing. So the largest chicken producer in the United States was a client of mine and so was McDonald's and the problem that they had at that time to make a chicken McNugget is if the cost.

Out of chickens varied a lot if they put it on the market and chicken prices Rose a lot. Then they'd have to raise their menu prices and they didn't want to do it. I mean it would be a big deal. So what I did is I knew I had sort of a enough of a unique understanding of pricing markets and the mechanics of growing chicken to know that we could lock in the grain price and go to this large chicken.

Producer and they could cover themselves against their cost make a fixed price contract and that McDonald's could have a fixed price on the menu and that they could do the chicken McNuggets. So that's how that happened.

So basically the smoothed out the cost of chicken and the moral of the story is they're actually made out of chicken, which I think is a relief to a few people listening.

Yeah, actually my contact with McDonald's which has since ended but all through that they wanted to use fresh beef. They would always

As use quality, I'm not involved for decades but back then that's what their approach was getting a good

hedge. You mentioned the happiest people discover their own nature and match their lifestyle to it. That's a whole Topic in itself. But I wonder how you suggest we start this process.

Well, I mean, I think first is to recognize that different people have different Nature's different deeply seated preferences, that will become manifest in what brings

Angst and what brings them pleasure and then I would say then personality profile tests and so on is a process by which there's scientific processes that will test your preferences for what do you like in your way of thinking and so on I've used these, you know, I've run my company for 40 some odd years. I don't run it anymore, but I've used those and I've learned a great deal and about the people and they've learned a great deal.

Deal about themselves. So I'm in the process of combining those tests and making a new test which I'm going to make available for everybody free, but I would start there and recognize those differences and then through a process of the interactions. You'll feel your pulse and what repulses you and then you will also think about it. In other words go above yourself. No just the in the emotions, but think about the emotional

That you're feeling and so on and maybe have the input of others work yourself through differences. Like I think there's an emotional reaction to disagreeing. Yes. That's so stupid. Okay, if one could calm oneself down and understand the art of thoughtful disagreement the capacity to see how others see things and to then understand those differences.

It's enlightening because once you understand yourself and you understand what others like it defines your path and also your relationships with others,

I think you called that in the book reluctance don't mistake disagreement for conflict and thus avoid disagreement. I think a lot of us do this. I now lean into conflict perhaps a bit too much if you ask some of those who work with me every day, but I certainly know that I used to do this it would be like I should say something but I don't want them to get mad.

Me so I'll just sweep this problem under the rug for three years or whatever. Not a good

strategy not a good strategy because obviously you don't understand each other. Obviously, you're not dealing with the issue. If you instead you sort of go above you and the other person and you say what do you want me to do? Like, I've got some thoughts. You know that should I be honest with the thoughts. Can we honestly and thought

Awfully exchange those thoughts or do you want me to hold on to those thoughts which might be right or wrong and they're critical thoughts. I mean, I'm sure you have some critical thoughts about me or what we're doing together, but can we talk about it or can we not talk about I think whenever I'm in a conflict with somebody or any two people are in a conflict, they would be wise to pause the conflict and then go above it and say, okay. What are our?

Ground rules for interacting. How should we interact? What do we want to achieve? Do you want to be ignorant or do you want to move forward with a discussion? And then once those ground rules are established then you go back into the conversation and move forward because being ignorant and particularly being critically ignorant. I almost find I do find unethical because if I have a critical view about you or something and I haven't discussed it with you.

You it's like trying a person in your brain. Everyone has the right to face their accuser. So to speak into work things through and when you do that when curiosity is your main motivator it will Enlighten you you will learn so much more and you will deal with the realities that

exist. You said to succeed in the market one needs to be an independent thinker and bet against the consensus which involves being wrong a lot. So if we're sort of attached to being

And we can't hear about being wrong. It seems like a really good strategy to lose a ton of money investing if you can't

handle it. Yes, that's right. And it's a good strategy for having a much worse life than you could have regardless of your profession. I mean, you have a choice you can follow and Obey or you can follow this other path, which means thinking for yourself while being

Ali open-minded so you're not blind to things I recommend the second

I found it interesting that you say making money is a bad goal. You should find out your real goals and then go backwards from there. How do we start that process? Because I think a lot of people who don't have Financial Security. They're like, what are you talking about? Making money is a bad goal. It's the only one that makes a difference for me right now.

Well, that's what I'm trying to convey. So let me clarify what I mean by that money has knowing it has a purpose you want to have security for you and your family you

Want to have choices so it's a very important thing but look at the things themselves. Okay, there are people who get hung up on making money and they almost lose sight of the things themselves and that's a tragedy. So you have to have the best life possible. That's the main thing if you have the best life possible and it's some clarity as to what that is and you're using

Money to help get there. That's terrific great, but don't make money itself the goal.

I think that's wise counsel from urine a unique place to say that having probable ostensibly been on both sides, right, you know having not not as much and then having a lot and knowing what's

valuable. I've been so lucky in 1982. I was so broke. I had to borrow $4,000 from my dad to help pay for

Or family bills and so I was very lucky. I was raised as a dad was a jazz musician as you say and then I had my game my adventure and it just happened to be the game. I love happened to be a game that made money. I didn't go into it for money. I was too naive to even think about money at the time, but then I acquired it. So I had the experience in the right order. I had the full range of experiences and it's a better order to go from up Rather.

Two down but I felt that those experience along the way and I'm 71 years old and I look back and I think about what matters most. Okay, I would say like I said in the book meaningful work and meaningful relationships have for me been the most important things and I do want the security for my family and I want to be able to have freedom and then on the increment when you start to get more money than that, then the questions are what

do you choose and I choose other things but I'm not working for money.

This is the Jordan Harbinger show with our guest Ray. Dalio. We'll be right back. This episode is also sponsored in part by OxiClean when Jaden my son pooped in our sheets and we just sprayed that OxiClean Max Force on it. We let it sit for a few days. It washed right out and this was no ordinary baby bootie either. This was a cherry poop pits and all right if OxiClean maxxforce can get that out. I'll use it on anything it even works on Dryden stains. They'll also it's not just for white clothes or sheets, but

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We've also got worksheets for these episodes and the links to those are in the show notes at Jordan Harbinger.com podcast. And now for the conclusion of part one here with Ray dalio besides happiness what things do most people think are connected to wealth, but in your experience are really not connected to wealth

I think people think that wealthy people and successful people think they're wealthy and successful and they generally don't I'll start by explaining that one but there are few more successful people. There's always more to learn there's always more better to be they're not the type of people generally speaking. I'm and I'm speaking from experience of being able to speak to the most successful people in the world.

They're buying large curious and excited about making magic happen. They're excited about visualizing things and making them happen and they're very curious and they are worried about being wrong which helps them minimize them being wrong by being able to triangulate with other people, which is also why we speak to each other so they are not sitting there thinking. Wow today and throughout history. There are many more.

Successful people and you you admire them so that they don't feel that way and in terms of feeling Rich when there's so much you want to do for example, you become philanthropic. In other words, you get to the point where the marginal benefit of protecting you and your family your past that and then you've got more and you don't want decadence. It's harmful and and so on so you want to move beyond that you can

Advise with others you can relate that and so you want to do things philanthropic lie, you see some of those needs and so on and you realize how inadequate your resources are relative to the desires to have those impacts. I mean, for example, we're in the state of Connecticut. I'll just give it a quick example, which has a my wife is particularly caring of what are called disengage and disconnected high school students a disservice.

Engaged student is someone who has an absentee rate of greater than 25% and in failing classes and so school is failing for them. They went may not get through high school and disconnected is someone that they don't even know where they are. They're gone out through the system and we have a situation here today that they can't those students in high school can't be educated because they don't have computers and they don't have

Activity and the state has inadequate money to provide those things. Okay. Well, I'm in our case. We went out we bought 60 thousand computers and we're trying to get them connectivity and we're working with others in order to do that. But that costs a lot of money. Yeah, that's a lot of times when we think that cost us a little over 20 million dollars and when we think about that and we think about the knee I'm not

Anna I'm just trying to say if you ask Bill Gates does he have enough money relative to the needs he would feel he doesn't have enough money. He's got more than enough money for himself. But the question is how to do those things. Well, so I think those are the two most obvious things. They don't feel uniquely successful, like people imagine they don't feel uniquely. Rich like they imagine it sounds

like your goals outpace your resources to accomplish those goals and if you get more resources,

Seemingly the most of anyone you still have goals that are bigger than the amount of resources you

have. Right? And I think that starts from day one. Yeah, we're certain people. I mean it I'm not saying even that's the right path by the way, there's an alternative path which is there's two extremes accomplish and have impact that's beneficial on the world or save her life.

Neither path is better. I can't say what path is better save her life means just each day smell the roses. Don't be so focused on doing the other the accomplishing the learning don't be hungry. You know, it's almost Buddhism and I can't say which is better. I enjoy both I try to get in as much as both in as possible. So yeah you face these types of choices.

Much like Buddhism. I think the balance is there right? I mean Buddhism also has elements of focusing on your well. I'm going to butcher this but focusing on yourself and focusing on what's going on in your own life. And of course helping others is a core tenet of any religion or any

practice. Well, what I was speaking about is the absence of

needs. Yeah, that's a train we could go down for hours with the with that that might be part of your next giant linked in peace or your next book depending on what you're working on right now.

Are you ready?

Writing any more

books. Are you planning on doubling down on principles or anything like that?

Well this series that I'm putting out now is I'm writing this book on the changing World Order because I think it's important for me to pass that along and it's research I'm doing for myself, but now at 71 I'll be 71 in August. I'm passing things along that I think are important. So that's sort of a book. It's a research piece that is being converted into a book.

But people could see it on LinkedIn and then I have to pass along the economic and investment principles because that's an area that I had I suppose enough of the unique understanding that I'd like to pass along and then I'll be done I suspect I'll be done and go quiet in about two

years really wow will get thing. We got you when we did I guess thanks for doing that. The whole book principles has been you've talked about it a lot people should read it will link to it in the show notes along.

I'm with the changing World Order LinkedIn post will be in there as well.

You can also if you want there's an app called principles in action right now. It's on the Apple iOS store for free that has also the book in it and it also shows some of these principles in action so you can get that for free or you could buy the book or do whatever you

want. I recommend people definitely check out the app, but also don't think oh, I've got the app so I don't need to read the book obviously a deeper explanation.

Vision is going to be suitable. Well,

good-bye. I'm saying the book is in the eye of the whole book is in the

app as well. I don't know

that. Yeah, if you want that and it's on your iPhone, it's handy. But anyway, either way, you know, they're different ways of getting

it. I just wanted to touch on that because I'm going to move along past the principles pretty quickly and I don't want people to think I left the best part out or that I'm leaving him in the in the dust here. The principles are what would you call these systems rubrics from making decisions based on inputs, or is that too

basic? Well, that's good. I would

Say recipes another words, we encounter things and everything has happened before many times. And so through those encounters. They're sort of our recipes for Success. When you're in this situation. What should you do? You can go get them for mother's you can come up with them yourself. What I did. Am I early days of running Bridgewater is reflect on what I was doing and I

Also took videos of it and had everybody sit take videos of themselves doing whatever thing but most importantly I reflected on why I would do what principles I would use for certain circumstances. I wrote them down and I shared them with the people. I worked with and shared my life with and then I said, would you handle it the same way would you use the same principle so we went from individual?

Uh cases of things happening and decisions to reflecting on what recipes would you use for certain circumstances. And so I would say their recipes for different circumstances. Everybody has principles every successful person if you were to say how does how did Steve Jobs do things? He's got the actions he took in certain circumstances or he take anybody Nobel Prize winner or something and you want those principles, so I wrote down.