#686 Bitcoin Could Go To $5 Million w/ Plan B

What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompeo. Know most of you know me as pomp. You're listening to the pump podcast. Simply the best podcast out there. Now. Let's kick this thing off Plan. B is one of the most notorious Bitcoin investors in the world. He has amassed a loyal and engaged following on Twitter Plan, B. Also invented the stock to flow model that is widely cited throughout the Bitcoin community. In this conversation. We discussed Bitcoin the stock to flow model price Target, gold macroeconomics and external Tailwinds. This exact conversation.

Deleted from YouTube and they deleted our entire YouTube channel yesterday, because they deemed it to be to quote dangerous while. I would be laughing. It did get censored on YouTube. So make sure you tune in and share this with all of your friends. Before we get in this episode. I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. First up is coin clap. Did you know, you can buy and sell crypto with cash. I want to introduce you to my friends at coin Cloud, more than just a Bitcoin ATM company. Coin cloud is the world's leading digital currency machine. Operator. They've been around since 2004.

14 and have thousands of machines across the country. You can buy and sell Bitcoin Dogecoin cardano and over 30 other digital assets. No connecting bank accounts, no long Waits and if you have questions, you can speak to a live US based customer support rep 24/7. I've had a lot of Bitcoin ATM companies reach out, but coin cloud is the only team I found that does things, right? They put together a special offer for listeners of the show. You can get fifty dollars in free Bitcoin when you buy two hundred dollars or more in any coin Cloud machine and use the

Promo, code, pop for details, go to coin dot Cloud / pump, again coin, dot Cloud, / Pomp, and use promo code pump. You get 50 bucks and free Bitcoin when you buy $200 or more at any coin Cloud machine. Next up is compass mining. This episode is explicitly sponsored by Compass money. The world's largest Marketplace for mining hardware and hosting with compass. Everyone can mine Bitcoin their team makes it easy to start mining wherever you want at home.

Or in one of their 23 hosting facilities around the world through the compass. Marketplace retail minors can access mining Hardware with similar prices and purchase plans is the world's largest mining companies companies, miners. All their own machines. They choose whatever mining pool they want and they mind directly to their own wallet miners who don't want to host their machines can order a six directly to their doorstep. Simple and low-cost hosting agreements coupled with best-in-class customer service. So the reasons why Compass is the simplest and most popular way.

Mine Bitcoin, start mining your own Bitcoin by visiting Compass. Mining dot IO today. Compass mining dot IO today. Next up is athletic greens. A G1 by athletic greens, the category of leading super food, product brings comprehensive and convenient, daily nutrition to everybody. Keeping up with the research knowing what to do and taking a bunch of pills. And capsules is hard on the stomach and hard to keep up with to help. Each of us. Be at our best. They simplify the path to better nutrition.

By giving you the one thing with all the best things, one scoop of a G1 contains 75 vitamins minerals and Whole Food sourced ingredients, including a multivitamin, multi-mineral probiotic green, superfood blend and More in one convenient daily serving. The special blend of high quality bioavailable ingredients in a scoop of a G1 work together to fill the nutritional gaps in your diet, support energy, and focus Aid with gut health and digestion, and support a healthy immune system effectively.

Using multiple products or pills with one healthy delicious, drink to make it easy. And let it greens is going to give you an immune supporting free. One-year supply of vitamin D, and five free travel packs with your first purchase. If you visit athletic greens.com pump today again, simply visit athletic greens.com /, pump to take control of your health and give AG one a try athletic, greens.com, / pump. All right, let's get this episode Plan, B. I hope you guys enjoyed this one. Anthony promptly. Ah, no runs on.

Investments, all views of him and the guests on his podcast, our sholay, their opinions, and do not reflect the opinions of pomp investment. You should not treat any opinion expressed by pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy. But only, as an expression of his personal opinion, this podcast is for informational purposes only. All right? First, I want to start with stock to flow model. You're the creator of this and most people point to it, as kind of the single guy.

Light to them, in terms of the relationship of Bitcoins price to these having cycle. So, talk us through a little bit about what the stock to flow model is. And then what, it's showing us so far. Yeah.

So the stock, the flow ratio is a ratio from the Commodities Market, actually, that tells you something about an acid scarcity. It divides, the stock, the reserves of a certain asset by the flow, the newly issued Bitcoins or

or, or gold newly mined gold. And if you divide the stock by the flow, you get two stock to flow ratio. So that ratio was known for ages in the Commodities Market. What I did was connect that with the market value of well, Bitcoin in the beginning. But later also, the other assets, like, silver and diamonds and gold and real estate. And what you find that there is a perfect linear relationship in the logarithmic space. So that was quite shocking. And with that, you can

You can actually predict the price of Bitcoin. Very roughly I should say, but you can do it and because we know the stock to flow ratio of Bitcoin, it's pre-programmed and that's yeah, that's a very nice thing and it's of course, Very bullish at the moment. It predicts somewhere around $100,000, Bitcoin for the current halfing cycle, which is a twenty twenty twenty twenty four. So we're actually heading towards that.

But yeah, it's it's that.

So when you think of the stock to flow ratio, one of the things that I'm fascinated by is it comes from the Commodities Market, but it's actually potentially more accurate when it comes to bitcoin because we know with certainty and can prove the supply of both the outstanding Supply and the daily incoming Supply, describe a little bit about why that certainty. And that verifiability is so important to the accuracy of a model like this.

Yeah. So for example with gold we don't know how much gold is.

Find every year. It's we can make a forecast but we don't know it precisely. And a lot of factors impact that supply that that mind supply of gold and one of the factors impacting that is price, right? If the price of gold is high, then the miners will increase their production and if the price of gold is low, they will decrease in the production and the mining of gold with Bitcoin. Every. Yeah. Well the whole production, the

whole flow is pre-programmed every 10 minutes on average, right? Every 10 minutes. There's a block and in that block is a block subsidy with the new Bitcoins for the minor. That found a hash of that block. So we know sort of that every 10 minutes and and for the whole year how much Bitcoins will be mind, of course, we don't know exactly because there is some variability in the in the 10-minute interval. Sometimes it lasts.

Our sometimes you have like three blocks in 10 minutes, but on average we know and especially long-term. We know what the stock to flow ratio will be and thus what the price will be roughly.

So when you think about these having Cycles, obviously there's a supply shock. But how do you think about kind of the cyclical nature of this right? Is there a point where you expect the model or ratio to be invalidated either through external forces?

Has or people start to kind of price it in and front run it. Like, how do you think about the fact that we do know the supply, and that helps for the accuracy of stock to flow? But at some point, does that become a negative? Yeah, the surf oral expects

to that, of course, from efficient market hypothesis, you would expect that this knowledge and the model would be priced in. So I actually, and most people with me, expected, the half, inning, the Mets 2020, half in, would be price in or

The so we did we would not see the actual price rise that we're seeing. Now that is very much in line with the soccer flow model because all the information is out there in the stock information to flow to stock flow ratio and the model. So it shouldn't follow the model as closely as it does. Today on the other hand. There's there's a lot of people not believing the model and the model of course hasn't proven itself. So maybe that that sort of puts the efficient market hypothesis.

Argument aside, but only other hand I think that the stock to flow model will break in the future because one of the nice things about the stock to flow model and especially the stock, the floor cross asset models, doctor floor, ex model which also in combo incorporates data from the gold market Diamond Market real estate market and silver market. So other stores of value, if you will, if we

Look at that stock. The floor ex model. We can interpolate the data, because gold has a higher stock to flow ratio than Bitcoin. And real estate has entire stock to flow ratio goal is 60 around 60 and real estate is around a hundred where Bitcoin is 50 55 right now. So we know we can within the data set we have available with with gold and real.

Estate in there with Market values of 10 trillion for the gold market and hundred trillion for a real estate market. We can, we can interpolate within the data set and, and of course, that ends. Because if Bitcoin will have its next half inning in 2024, the Bitcoin suck to throw ratio, will jump to a hundred, which is very close. Yeah, which is approximately the same as real estate, but

Next half inning where we jump to 200 stock flow ratio for Bitcoin. We're out of the model data bounce, if you will. And then we have to extrapolate which which is what. Basically all the other models are doing there, extrapolating into the future, which is very dangerous. And one of the big assets, big advantages of the stock to flow model, the stock for ex model in particular, is that the, this interpolation can be done. So to be in short,

I think the stock to flow model will end to be valid somewhere after next, half inning, when the stock to flow is above hundred because we cannot say interpolate anymore. And of course that that means probably that the dollar the denominator in that model will end to play a big role or or something. And of course, it doesn't say that Bitcoin will die or something. It's or you know, it's just a model.

Will not be very accurate after that

for sure. And one of the things that I appreciate about you is not only can you look at something like the stock to flow model and talk about kind of the cyclical nature of the having's but also you've got a very good understanding of Market structures and various things that happen on the exchanges. You had a tweet recently talking about the cell walls, as kind of pure, Scare Tactics and we pulled up The Tweak here, describe a little bit more about what goes on in these order books with the cell walls, and how folks are using them as a scare tactic.

What most people maybe don't know as my background is in institutional investment and I've been in the Institutional Investor rules my entire life. So I started at a daily dealing room and FX trading, then went to Banking balance, sheets, and, and insurance balance sheets. And lately. My latest job was managing a pension balance sheet with the team that balance sheet was a hundred billion u.s. Dollars approximately. So yeah.

I spent my life chasing those, those charts that you have in front there and then chasing those cell walls and by walls. And I yeah, what I noticed was that most people are sort of scared by those big walls, the big big cell walls, in this case, and in that chart and and of course, the most of the time, not all the time, but most of the time, these cell walls are just there to scare people in not lying.

Or even selling and plus because they signal while don't come here. What is that? Price level? Where their cell wall is? Because we will we will sell and we will keep the price under this level. But in fact, what you see in real life, 9 and 10 times, you see that as as the price approaches the cell wall. The cell will gets gets gets cancelled and I moved further away. So in this

Is the price. The cell will be moved at a higher price. So it's just Scare Tactics and I thought it was a good thing for to put that in the tweet for other people to know,

for sure. Know, I think that people really appreciate that one. When you start to think about whether it's the cell walls, on the order books, whether it's the stock to flow ratio. How do you think about what I'll call more quantifiable, metrics and Analysis with things like regulation or things that seem to be more?

External to the asset itself. Do you worry about that stuff. Do you think about it? Do you incorporate it in any way into your

Yes, I certainly think about it and and follow it like like a hawk because the big moves in Bitcoin were all sort of triggered by regulatory changes regulatory Clarity. So I track all the important news and I put it in a database as well. However, I don't use it as an explicit input variable in my in my models both the the stock flow.

All of which only has one input, which is start to flow ratio, but also the, um, chain models or the floor models more technical analysis, based models. They don't use that kind of information. But in fact, those kinds of news events, it could be Regulatory and used. We could also be other macroeconomic news, like, like, El Salvador adopting Bitcoin or China, Banning a Bitcoin Etc. This cat.

This kind of news is very difficult to predict once it happens. And what the impact will be? Is it priced in? Do people expect it or not? So I regard those as trigger events that that create an outlier in the model or, and that means that there is a spike above the model value or below the value of the model. But those are those spikes those, those trigger events are very rare and I

Very like Black Swan events. So they cause some some variation in models, a model error, but they don't disturb the general Trend in, in the models. That's what I was. Yeah. That's how I look at

it. And how do you think about your investing philosophy? Do you try to trade around the asset? Based on all the data? You look at our you just dollar cost, averaging buy-and-hold like talk to us a little bit about the philosophy that you use, given that you do have at least a

An understanding of what some of the data says is that change what you do at all?

Yeah, but I'm more an investor than a traitor and certainly not a day trader. So I bought I was lucky to buy Bitcoin in 2015 and 2016 when the price was 400 500 guidish. So those are my my Bitcoin Investments and I've told another interviews as well that I sold.

Half of that stash in well shortly after the peak into in December 2017, based on stock to flow kind of models. So and I reinvested that half that are celt just before I publish the article about stock to flow because I knew we were at a very low level compared to the stock to flow model at that time.

So, so, in that way, I sort of trade or sort of try to time the Peaks and, and the bottoms, but that's, that's on a monthly, or even yearly basis, and are certainly do not trade on an hourly basis. That, that being said. I am very intrigued. As you know, by on chain analysis. I do a lot of energy on chain analysis. And I have a great team of Kwan's around me that can do all sorts.

Sorts of programming, the blockchain data and and getting signals from there. And that's very, very interesting. And sometimes you can you can actually find patterns that that are tradable on a daily or weekly, or monthly basis, or on a shorter interval than um, I'm used to invest and and we are ya making use of those patterns with algorithmic Trading.

Offer, so, we write a write, our own trading software, that automatically scans for those anomalies, and yeah, make use of that. And that was one of my skills also, in my institution of career that I. Yeah, that the algorithmic trading part is very, very interesting in the Bitcoin space tell

us more about the institutional interest, whatever you can share whether it's organizations that you work out or have worked at or just kind of conversations with former colleagues.

As peers people, you know in the industry. What's the general sense from the institutions in terms of Bitcoin? What they're allocating, how they're thinking about those

Yeah, so I'm amsterdam-based. I talk a lot with European investors, some, some us investors, but it's mainly European perspective that I have. Well, certainly the companies that I worked were not very interested in in Bitcoin yet because mainly because of Regulation and what misinformation if you will because most of them thought it was for criminals. It was for

And governments would ban it and all that. And and of course for an Institutional party, like a bang, or an insurance company, they have Capital regimes with their Central Bank. So they'll have to put Capital aside for every investment they make, if the investment is more, it more risky, like Bitcoin. They have to, they have to park more capital for that investment. And for Bitcoin is only, it's almost one-to-one.

So if they, if they would do a billion dollars in Bitcoin, they would, they would have to park a 1 billion dollars in equity as well. And, and that is, of course not not doable. It's more doable for for hedge funds. So, what I see is it's not the big institutions, Pension funds, insurance companies and banks that are investing on their own balance sheet, or are interested in Bitcoin, but it is the hedge funds, the family offices, very much. So and commodity investors, especially the goal.

A commodity investors are, of course, very much into the same philosophy that Bitcoins have with sound money. And yeah, so family offices, commodity investors and hedge funds. Those those are the, the ones I see active and the other ones are will be late as

usual. And when you wake up in the morning, like, what are you check first? What's the data sources that you find most valuable or in terms of?

Understanding what's happening in the market, whether it's a short-term or long-term period,

well, to be honest, the price is one of the first things the Bitcoin price on the first things I checked because that's the most. Yeah, accurate and timely information. If it's the same as when I went to bat and nothing happened, if it's if it has a big Delta, then something happened and then I go on Twitter, which I find is my the most direct and

Accurate information Source there is because yeah, well, one thing I learned is to not read mainstream Media or watch mainstream television or even things media sources. Like, like CNN and Bloomberg or the Wall Street Journal that are considered the creme. De La Creme is tuition investing. I have to I've learned that with these new Investments like like Bitcoin, you better ditch those.

Standard sources and go to Twitter and the experts in the field because that's the yeah, the most direct way of getting

information. Yeah, and when you think about portfolio construction for yourself or for the institutions, maybe both, is this still something that is like a very small allocation? Or is it something that is being used to like, to nominate the whole portfolio. How do you just think about the portfolio construction and any sort of concentration targets?

That's tricky question. Because I think for institutions, of course, that's very important to keep the risk profile or sort of constant and within their mandate, so they'll, they'll have to sell Bitcoin. As soon as it rises to keep, to keep the concentration low, and with him and eight boundaries, but with hedge funds or family, offices, or, or for my own Investments, I don't have those.

Days or boundary. So I can what I see in practice that what starts, as a small investment, a couple percent investment in Bitcoin. Soon grows to a double digit position in Bitcoin and well, after a few years four or five years, it's sort of dominates your portfolio. That sure is true with my my own Investments as well,

for sure. And then,

Before I let my brother's ask a couple questions. What do you think is the likely price for Bitcoin by the end of the year? And do you think that the bull market ends at the end of the year? Or does it carry us into the beginning of 2022? Yeah,

that's the most asked question that I say. I would be very, very surprised if bitcoin price would be below. $100,000 at the end of the year. That would well, sort of invalidate. My view, my mom.

And that would, that would certainly surprised me. I I do think we will see a price that is at least under the $35,000 by Christmas, because that's what my floor model says. And basically, I'm using it, three kind of models that all say the same thing. So stop. The flow, which has a hundred thousand on average for the entire cycle and were mind, you were.

Were one and a half years into that cycle and with below under thousand prices. So we'll have to spend the next two and a half years Market. Lie above hundred thousand to make that that average. And the second model I use is the unchain stuff that that on change stuff is really good at the end, identifying bottoms and Peak. So, we're now talking peaks, of course, so I know quite well certain

Not not guaranteed, but I will have a high confidence in that the unchain indicators will signal a top. If you if we look at the unchanged signals right now, I would say that top is at least a couple of months, a six months from here. So so that would be end of q1, maybe maybe later and then the Third Kind of models that I use of course, that floor model on the

And that's that's not based on structure flow. It's based on other. It's a proprietary thing that's based on based on other stuff Technical and on chain. So yeah, and by the way, that's very good at like the like the name, says, on that indicating bottoms. So I guess we will be above a hundred thousand above hundred, thirty-five thousand at the end of the year, and then we'll continue to grow maybe towards the soccer flakes.

Mobile targets, 288 or even above, I would not be surprised even to see in q1 or Q2 next year prices of 300, 400 500 thousand dollars, but I do think at, and I noticed you were talking before this show that I'm a fool that I am fooled. Will I? Am I right now, but I'm quite sure that that will be a time when I switch from Blue to to bear.

Like I did and at the end of 2017 and I to be honest, I'm a bit bit of struggling with that. So I don't I don't want to disclose it because I want to at least disclose it responsibly and not be responsible for triggering the bear market. So people have ideas for that. I think there are very welcome.

And so when you think about that 288

Thousand dollar price. I think a lot of people heard you say that before. But when you say that, it could go higher 300, 400 500 thousand dollars, is that just pure kind of fomo and a blow-off top that drives that or is there something else that you're looking at? That shows that hey, maybe we do go past that 288 that the stock to flow model has

there? No, no that that will indeed be a fomo. And at that will be very clearly marked in the unchain analysis, which is looking for certain kinds of

Oceans a tie which I call them before but those are fomo transactions. So so if I if the Algos CD, the fomo kind of transactions coming in than the end is near and yeah, so I would Envision like, for example, going to 500k, somewhere qq2 or something and then crash back. Well, maybe 80% against two.

To have 100K have a bit of a bear market and then continue another cycle. Starting with the halfing in 2024,

going from 55, 57 thousand today to 500 K and Q to back down to a hundred K. And then continuing into the next having while it sounds crazy to. A lot of people would be pretty consistent with what we've seen in the past, in terms of volatility, both up and down. So it's

Didn't hear you say that Joe. What questions do you have? Yeah, Pine Bay. Thanks for doing this. I know I'm a big fan of yours and your models, and your analysis. So I know a lot of others are. Also, my question would be around kind of the correction that you just spoke of right, which is where at 57 58 thousand. Now, almost you're saying that it's going to average at least a hundred thousand over this cycle, which is twenty twenty two twenty twenty four. So we obviously have to go much higher, whether it's 300,000 400,000, 500,000 will see, but traditionally there's also been an

Percent correction. So, is that something that you think will in fact happen again, and kind of how are you thinking about that in the long term?

Yeah, I do think that's exactly what will happen again. I can be wrong by right? That's let me be very clear. I can be wrong, but I do think that four-year cycle that is sort of triggered by the whole thing is a very real thing. It has to do with the scarcity of Bitcoin does do with the shortage that we're seeing right now, you know.

Bitcoins are traded on exchanges and and the exchanges have some inventory of Bitcoin and then you can buy it, you can sell it but it's basically not on chain transactions. It's Bitcoins that are on the exchange and you're buying from other sellers. You sell them to other buyers, but if you look on chain, so the Bitcoins that are in Cold Storage the that large investors have you can very clearly see these these waves of shortage and and we're in

One right now that will at least lost another couple of months before. It's, it's really well out of sellers if you will, but yeah, from from there and whatever news will trigger it. I don't know. I do think that will be a crash and it could be as large as the crashes we've seen in the past. We have had three crashes of 80%, and I see no reason why we couldn't have another one.

Which of course is always short lift and an excellent opportunity to buy more Bitcoin, but it could be quite scary for newcomers, which is well precisely. What of course those those Cycles, do they shake out people that are leveraged that are investing with too much money that are not certain of their investment strategy that are. Well, those just what you need as does. Really

Committed hotbars if you will and the will rise again,

John. What do you think? Yeah, plane be nice to virtually meet. You congrats and all this success so far. No, you reached 1 million Twitter followers in just about three years. That's pretty impressive. I want to talk about your stock to flow model real quick. So you have it projected at hitting about a million dollars, a coin by 2025. Do you believe this? Do you still believe it and then if so, how do we get

there? Yes, so I really do think that we have at least one more cycle.

Call to go into stock to flow prediction. So yeah, it's that would bring Bitcoin in the 1. 1 million to five million dollar range. And I do I really do believe that that we're getting there. And so that would be the path that we're seeing right now. We're going from from 57 or a right now to 63 98 in November and the five, for example, or something above that right in December. And then,

Up, then fomo starts to kick in, we go to 200, 300, 400, whatever, and then crash. And from there. We wait, till the next half inning, and the next half inning will be another another important fundamental, and even maybe structural event for Bitcoin because minor, I think that's, that's what people misunderstand. That it's all about the supply and, and the doubling of the, the stock to flow ratio, which, which is an important part.

Art, but the other part is that miners will have to survive that event because they're their income, their, their source of income and their revenue stream will half and they'll have to switch to two new equipment. Find better ways to fund themselves and be much more efficient in their business and if the miners and the whole business survives, another halfing, that's a major accomplishment and and that will trigger

Then next, the next rise from say, a hundred thousand, after the next crash to what 10, x, 20, 30 x, at that amount, which is, yeah. In the millions,

indeed. It's pretty crazy Plan B. When you start to look at this, when most people would hear, let's say 20, 25 a million to 5 million that feels like it's a very wide aperture. In terms of outcomes, help people understand why it's so hard to

Pinpoint, you know, a million to two million, let alone 125 million, right? I don't think people quite get kind of this idea of even into q1 Q2 of next year. If you're kind of thesis plays out you said hey 288 in the model but 300 400 500. That's a pretty big variation as well. So it's to help people understand like what drives that variability there.

Yeah. I think that's an important question. And it's it's funny to see that how naturally and logical that that path.

The coin is to me and how, how amazing it can be for for newcomers and, and, and, and traditional investors indeed. And it's it, the trick is to look at it exponentially. So in logarithmic scale, if you will, because the, it's not about the price level. It's about the growth level. The percentage growth that is, that is constant or high at least and maybe two to explain that it

If you look at my, my followers, which is 1 million now, which was which was Unthinkable even a year ago, a let alone two years ago. So three years ago. I started with I crossed a thousand followers boundary and a year later. I cross the 10,000 and then a year later. So the second year I crossed a hundred thousand and now in the third year across the million. And and and if you look at that.

That path. It's 10x every year or 20% every month. And so it's amazing growth and and people start to see it when you're when you're big, but in fact, it's it's it's a constant growth of 20% per month. And yeah, that was 200,000 new followers last month, but it will probably be 220,000 new followers, next month, and it's so that 20% is constant and the same is with the Bitcoin price Bitcoin goes.

Goes, yeah, let's say at 10x every every two years. So so hundred X every four year period Anna. That is amazing. If yeah to hear that, but if you actually experienced that or look at the data, but that's different. That's but if you experience and as I did, of course, buying it for 500 and then going to for 5000 and now we're at 40, 50 thousand. That's a hundred X. And that and there are people that have

Thousand texts are investment or 10,000 x and that that constant growth I guess is very specific to bitcoin and triggered by the halfing periods of the scarcity that's intrinsic in Bitcoin. And that makes it such a perfect store of value and and more people more and more people will recognize this this unique property.

What's the thing that when you look forward you're most excited to. Is there a price my

Milestone, is there a number of entities on chain. Is there some sort of kind of external Milestone? What's the thing that you're like, man? When this happens that's going to be pretty cool. I'm really looking forward to it.

Well, on the short term, I would be very would be very nice if we hit that the 63,000 mark end of this month. Because I guess that's what really did it last time. Nailing the 47 and 43,000 last two months.

So 63 would be nice. Of course, the hundred K. Donald K, sort of the make-or-break for the stock to flow models. I really hope we hit that and I'm quite certain or not. Uncertain. I should say that we're going to hit that. And after that, I think the most amazing thing for most people and also for myself will be that, um, chain model turning red. The fomo transactions that will be detectable and me.

As the full ball, turning turning bear. And as I said, I'm struggling with that. How to communicate it. Maybe that's the best time to go dark. But yeah, I think there will be a time where we switch from bull to bear. And that, of course, is is great. At a great thing of a model that it's not always bubble bubble-butt that and you're not always

The moon boy, but that you can predict the downsides as well. So, yeah, I'm not looking forward to it on the one hand, but I feel it's going to happen someday later next year. But yeah, very much sort of looking forward to that

moment. Give any thoughts on a Bitcoin ETF and how that could either support accelerate or be detrimental to stock the full model.

Yes, stuck to flow ETF will

Bitcoin available for the masses for Papa mom and investors. And yeah, it will be a huge thing for the market. Although we, of course, think well, you can buy Bitcoin right now. Why should you pay the fees that are associated with these funds? But it makes it easy for the crowds. The hurt will be coming then, and that will be a big big thing. So, yeah, I think it's coming maybe this month maybe next month.

Well, it would be there. Of course, the Greg and snow from the SEC as already sort of notched that that it is possible to start a Futures Bitcoin. Futures ETF right now which which I think has already been receiving applications for that at the moment. So so yeah, I will be very surprised that would not be introduced this year. And what I also found very interesting was that one of them.

Vacations at one of the interviews with with one of the future ETFs Bitcoin 80s was that they mentioned stopped flow model as one of the models that they're tracking for future value. And yeah, I think that's it. Once you've seen that once you've seen when she, you understand the exponential growth and the 4-year Cycles. I think it's an acid you cannot you cannot deny.

How about the macro environment?

Things like interest rates or quantitative easing both in the United States and abroad. How do you think about that affecting this? Is it something where Bitcoin just remains non-correlated? And it's worth paying attention to but doesn't ultimate have an effect on price or do you think that we've seen more correlation and therefore, if there are some sort of tapering or kind of slow down in some of those activities that it could be negative for Bitcoin?

Yeah. I think it's very important. I think it's the one of the reasons that Satoshi, of course made Bitcoin. It was against the basement against money.

Ting, which was very much present in 2008 when he wrote the right paper white paper and the software because that was at the peak of the financial crisis, the global financial crisis at the time and the white paper was the Bitcoin, white paper was published 45 days after the Lima default. So, yeah, it's very, very important is also one of the reasons that I started looking from an Institutional Investor point of view to our

Alternative Investments because because I saw the especially in Europe, of course, we have negative interest rates and that, yeah, that turns your world upside down, that you yeah, school or university, doesn't teach you that. So how do you survive, a negative interest rate environment? And what does that tell, you negative interest rates. Oh, Well, everybody's looking for yield and and rates that are not negative. I started looking at Alternatives and came to

Came to in Bitcoin through that. So, I'm very grateful to the central Bankers for introducing quantitative, easing and negative interest rates because otherwise, I would never have found Bitcoin. So, yeah, I think what we also saw is that all the price movement, a lot of price movement in other markets, like, like the stock market like the S&P 500 were related or correlated with, with quantitative easing.

Impossible tapering and and yeah the money printing, if you will. So if money is printed that money has to go somewhere and first, it will be two bonds government bonds, but the receivers of those bonds, usually Banks or governments will spend that money again, and and so it will end up in the hands of the well, the second layer that receives that that money and and some of those those companies and people will buy

Equities, real estate and Bitcoin. And that's why we see all these markets go up because there's just too much money. And in a way, it's just too much money. Chasing too few goods. So all the prices of those assets go up asset inflation is very real these days as all the investment Real Estate Investors will notice as well and Equity investors as well. So will the markets decouple. Well, it seems like it.

Today

or this week? Because Bitcoin goes up all the other markets are not following. Even the altcoin markets are not not following Bitcoin this time. So I guess in the end Bitcoin is the Ultimate Sword value consistent with my stock to flow model. It is not as scarce as as gold or about a scarce has called today, but not

as curses real estate today. So real estate is one of these big money sort of values today, but in the end Bitcoin will have the same scarcity, the same stock, the flow ratio as real estate and it will be portable communicate table, buy buy, buy a phone line by internet connection. So it will be better than gold and real estate together. And once people see that the lights are off, and we go much higher in price that we're out today.

How do you think about those other assets right either for your own portfolio or for those investors? Is this something where? Let's take Real Estate Investors, they begin to see that asset appreciation. They see their rents going up there. Continue to make more and more money. And is it a thing where like that Capital eventually will flow into Bitcoin as well? Because they understand store value. The understand scarcity understand like a hard asset compared to that Fiat devaluation, or do you think that people who have been investing in the analog?

It's like a real estate investor. They just have a hard time understanding buying a virtual item or something. That is this like Global digital decentralized or value. Yeah, both bun points