Hi everyone. Welcome to unchain to your no hype resource for all things crypto. I'm your host Laura Shin follow Unchained on Twitter and Unchained underscore pot where you can find all sorts of content ranging from My Weekly Newsletter to updates on my upcoming book and a whole lot more. Today's episode is a chat. I moderated between Peter Brandt and Willie. Woo at last month's real Vision crypto Gathering. It's a fascinating look at the original cryptocurrency from two people steeped in analysis in different.
Ways it was a great discussion and I am sure you will enjoy it now on to the show Kuipers Dynamic Market maker DMM is the first defy protocol designed to adapt to market conditions to optimize fees maximize returns and enable extremely high Capital efficiency for liquidity providers the crypto.com app lets you buy earn and spend crypto all in one place earn up to 8.5 percent interest on your Bitcoin and 14%
Interest on your stable coins paid weekly download the Crypt a.com app and get $25 with the code Laura. The link is in the description.
Indexed Finance allows you to by passively managed indices for crypto and defies hottest markets passive portfolios at your fingertips. I ND e XE d dot Finance. Hi everyone and Welcome to our panel. It starts with the charts. My name is Laura shin and I host the podcast and video series Unchained. I've covered crypto for nearly six years and was previously a senior editor at Forbes where I was the first mainstream media reporter to cover cryptocurrency full-time.
Our two guests today are Peter L Brandt Futures and FX Trader and author and publisher of the fact a report and
Willie. Woo on
chain Bitcoin analyst and writer of the Bitcoin forecast a market intelligence newsletter. Welcome Peter and
Willie.
Hey, it's good to see you again.
Likewise. Looking forward to this.
Peter let's start with you to get the big picture on what is happening with Bitcoin. You recently tweeted Bitcoin is undergoing its third parabolic advanced in the past decade and I think you have been recently saying it's even undergoing a fourth now and you've said to see that number of parabolic advances is extremely rare and even historic. So can you explain why it is so
historic
Oh sure. I'd like to Laura your production folks have a chart that shows the parabolic advances in Bitcoin in accelerating Market that is accelerating the acceleration and you know, I traded for 46 years. I've studied charts over really centuries. I'm kind of a chart mirrored. I love charts and somebody would have told me that there would be a market during my lifetime.
That would not only experience a parabolic advance but experience for parabolic advances not just on an arithmetic scale, but on a log scale I would have bet my life against that this is just unbelievable. I can people get caught up in the daily motion and the daily moment moment of Bitcoin without realizing we're seeing a market Advanced unlike anything we've ever really seen before.
To have for parabolic advances on a log scale in the course of a 10-year period is just unheard of I would challenge anybody to find a price chart of any asset or any commodity item that has gone through this and so we're really really witnessing history. This is history in the making this is something that history books will be written on as a Trader is just unbelievable and I can participate in a
Credit that is going through a situation like this. This is this is just spectacular spectacular ride, and everybody that's involved in Bitcoin can know that they're really taking part in history. Willie will better describe really under pinnings of history and what it really means in terms of Real World Finance monetary system and so forth. That's not my specialty. I'm not sure artist on the trader I match artist but as it
Notice, this is just something so special. I really can't even express
it and just briefly before we turn to Willie. Can you also Define a parabolic advance for the members of our audience who aren't familiar with these technical terms?
Sure. I mean, we all know what an uptrend is in a parabolic advance. Laura is an advance that accelerates over a period of time not only does it go up steadily, but it goes up in an accelerating Manner and we can find all kinds of
of stock charts that have had one or maybe two parabolic advances on an arithmetic chart, but to have a parabolic advance on a skate analog chart is just
spectacular.
And so Willie, how would you put Bitcoin into a historical context as an asset? Yeah. It's an interesting one because I see Bitcoin more as a new technology rollout and we never see new technology being traded on a labor market before the Queen's the first time we've had that you know, the internet exploded onto the scene and we had a whole lot of new technologies, but you'll notice that those startups that were forging those Technologies.
They were not listed on a stock exchange tool very much later until the immaturity phase. So here in Bitcoin. We've got from exner number of months until it from 2009. We had live price of Bitcoin and you just can see the crazy volatility and that market and that that is normal for a burgeoning new technology. Anyone who's been in a c-level startup will know how schizophrenic the ups and downs of that Raiders the next you know, one day.
You're on top of the world and you're going to conquer the world and next day. All doom is the here and you're not going to survive the next month. And we've had a number of these duties in Bitcoin, even through the first 10 years many years into it. So what we're seeing here in my eyes is this new technology finding price Discovery in a phase that we've never seen before and Peter just to draw out one more comparison between crypto and
additional markets much has been made of how crypto trades differently because it trades 24/7 365 across Global markets and also because of how the movements are often affected by memes and I wondered how you would compare the way Bitcoin trades to the way different types of traditional assets trade.
Well, I guess how it break that down into ways Laura one way is just from an historical perspective the magnitude of the advance the nature of
The advanced in Bitcoin is is really can't be compared. It is in a class by itself. Of course, we have some other crypto coins that have had a similar move but I think in my mind Bitcoins the Legacy it is crypto crypto is Bitcoin Bitcoin is crypto. And obviously we do have some of the other coins and all kinds and so forth. And so we can't compare it but in some sense we can you know, it's interesting you work for for
he's the editor of forms in the 1920s. It was a guy by the name of Richard W. Shell Barber Shop Bakker 1934 published a book which lays out the classical charting principles that chart us use today. It was the it was the author is the author of classical charting and so the types of chart construction that he wrote about 1934. We see on a regular basis in Bitcoin, you know a rectangles head and
Shoulder is trendlines all of those things not only apply to bitcoin but really characterized Bitcoin from a cloud as a classical chartist. I think Bitcoin is the purest Market there is looks so, you know, it complies with what I know to be history in terms of classical charting, but at the same time from a more broader picture from an historic picture, it's one unto
itself.
All right. It's so now let's turn to discussing this current cycle, which I think in some ways has deprived surprised some bitcoiners, even at the same time that they knew all along. It would happen and Willie and one of your recent news letters you wrote quote Bitcoin is undergoing the largest Supply shock and its history the steepest price rise seen so far in 21 has been supported by strong fundamentals. And then you wrote my macro top target has now increased at 300K and previously was
Hundred fifty K. Can you elaborate on what you meant? They're going back to the supply shock. We've just never seen in the history of Bitcoin so much of the coins being scooped up and bought and locked away by very strong holders of the coin and we can see this from tracking the flows of coins out of the exchanges where typically people speculate or buy and sell vehicle.
Aliens and they have a set inventory. Some of it is allocated for speculation. And we've just seen an unprecedented amount of depletion of that inventory. If you look back in the 2017 bull market, we saw her like a five-month depletion of inventory and that was enough to propel the bull market of 2017 right up to the 20,000 from what initially was about one to one.
Half thousand dollars when the inventory depletion ended and now we're kind of in this zone of the living 12 months of inventory depletion. We've not seen this before and you can look on chain and look at the holders and you can see the wallets that the holders the behavior of the wallets by the holders and there's a category where we tumor liquid. These guys are just accumulating buying and accumulating without any history of selling and these guys are just hoovering up the
A coin so there's a real supply shop. There's there's less and less coins each week that goes by that's available to be bought and so obviously there's a mismatch between demand and supply and that has launched the price vertical and for some technical traders that do trade indicators on the price fluctuations vowel screaming over overbought overbought overheated whilst if you
Into The Ledger and save the the demand and supply of the coins by fundamental investors, you can see that it's fully supported. And so I run a very simple model. It's called me. It's a very mean reversion model which is in simple terms is a moving average on the market cap all time moving average and you can use that to predict tops at has predicted every top and Bitcoin history and So currently
Italy that top Target is launching upwards and at the start of this year January it was zoning into a area of 200 to 300 thousand dollars by December and December of this year is typical to what we would expect for the end of a bull market if we get there not saying that will happen this time around but if we do type out in December that Target now is lifted to above 300 thousand because the trajectory
If that upper band of they're moving average. Well, I'm that's really exciting. And so earlier when you were talking about all these holders who are buying moving the Bitcoin off exchanges into wallets that do not really have a history of selling. Who do you think those groups or people are it's very unusual because normally what you expect is as more retail comes in more Moms and Pops
Very people off the streets they tend to buy their coins and hold them on the exchange wallet because it's just a very easy experience. So we've had this General trend of more and more coins being stored on exchanges like the coin basis of this world is a very easy to use experience. But then this particular cycle we're seeing huge amounts of coins move off exchanges and being locked away under their own custody. And that's the signature of
Institutional players coming in and high net worth individuals. They tend to store their coins under custody and in Cold Storage, so those Clues and just the sheer size of the purchases. You can see the size of the withdrawals coming out from the exchanges. They just really point to institutions scooping up coins. So it's very very unlikely. It's anything else but the institutions
And by that you mean like Tesla microstrategy, the corporate treasurers that are buying the coin or are there any other institutions you would include in that bucket? Yeah institutions is kind of this is kind of a menagerie really because in simple terms, it's just coins held by custodian for whole lot of people whether that's you know, Tesla and their shareholders or fund managers. So it's as looking like it we've got hedge funds coming in.
We've got the the corporate Treasury and by you know lead by Michael sailor and microstrategy. And now, you know, the latest is being Tesla, but you know, we've also seen announcements that it's Pension funds as well. I'm grayscale. See you later had a lot of strong buying from there. I've just seen that New Zealand has announced that they're one of their funds for pensions has bought into Bitcoin in October. So yeah across the gamut there's also
Sorts institutions buying right now. It seems like the word is out that the coin is now a valid investment alternative to gold in these times. And so then if we were to zoom out and kind of look at Bitcoin and its trajectory of let's say like historical adoption, you know, like if we were to look back 50 years from now and and you know, look at this moment in time, then where would you both say Bitcoin kind of like is currently in its historical adoption period
I have a question Laura. I'd like to ask Willie to see his comments. Really. I found really super interesting because I don't really dig into what happens to coin says they fall into the blockchain and get taken out of exchanges. He that's his expertise not mine. But what I have noticed looking at the exchanges in terms of the bid-offer spread what happens on the bed what happens on the upper side is oftentimes when a
It blows off and we are some people say this is a big bubble. We're blowing off and get the Bitcoins a bubble. There are characteristics of a bubble. One of them is that markets go up fast with bids. There's aggressive bids that take place in the late stages of a bull market the kind of blow it off and all those bids come in and Chase the markets fomo, but we know is retail from what takes place within the whole Market. This Market is very different what I've noticed.
Dust is is the Marcus not necessarily going up on aggressive bid was happening is an offer comes in and just immediately gets taken and so this nature of the bull market is such that what I see is whenever something is offered. It's just taken mediately by somebody who's willing to take the offer. So rather than going up on bids. It's going up Onyx on higher offer prices higher and higher offer prices that may sound like it's
It's really no difference to people who aren't familiar with how markets up behave but for me as a as a technical Trader that's really significant because it shows me that there are big names. There are big deep top Pockets that are saying we're not going to change the market but whenever something gets offered we're willing to take it and that kind of resonates very well with what Willie described.
Yeah, so you're saying that whenever there's a big offer.
On hand large enough for very large purchases come in they'll take it because there's not a lot of offers that size. It's on the table and they're just waiting for whenever there's an offer they'll take it. Yeah, that's interesting.
You know, I would love to ask Willie and you know Willie refers to bitcoin has a technology which it is.
But the interesting thing for me is in those cases where I have seen an asset or a market or a commodity have the kind of parabolic advances that we're seeing what they have been primarily is currency markets. They've represented the destruction of a currency a money a monetary system. They have been the currency against the dollar. So in other words how many of these currencies can one dollar by
We saw it in the German Mark in the 1920s your production guys may have a quick chart of that's not a very good chart but it does show it. We've seen it in third world currencies and Africa and third were at this is Mark's per US dollar and the 1920s in and what it shows is that we went from kind of late nineteen teens of five six marks per dollar and then we go into really the destruction.
Off the Mark at that point which is obviously connected with with a previous political structure, but we saw the mark think I'm worthless and we've seen that with third world currencies African countries Latin American countries. And so when we look at Bitcoin Beyond just being a technology but being a form of money the only other charts that I can see when I look back in history that have us have a similar parabolic move have really been currency.
Church, that would have been the destruction of that currency. I'm just curious as to how will it relates to bitcoin also as a form of money is a monetary system because monetary systems are the only places where I've seen charts that have uh, similar parabolic
move. Well, that's absolutely fascinating Pi because like I look at this chat and I go yeah, that's exactly right. I'll flip those currencies and I'll go US dollars per Bitcoin.
And that's essentially what we're tracking. This destruction of fiat currency is Bitcoin starts to suck in their monetary base. I think what we're witnessing here is the birth of the new monetary base, which is no longer based on fear. It's based on consensus agreement that this has value and this thing is a value that can be stored online.
Really move the cross borders within seconds. And so it's an instant age internet Age Technology. It's a new internet age monetary standard and it's one that is going to keep up with the world's needs into this digital age. If you think about what happened with the Industrial Age we move from essentially commodity money and you know gold silver copper and we moved into trading currency like paper.
Bet by this this commodity and that was really for to keep track of an industrial age economy. Obviously, it's too slow to ship bars of gold around the world. So now we're in a digital age has very very similar in their life. It is just so slow and broken if anyone that thinks Theory it works. Well the only using it in a local starts with within their country once you start to do cross-border payments.
It's very slow. It's very painful. And so we're in this phase. I think that is that we're moving in Crossing deeply into a digital age and to go back to the first point that Laura posed. You know, where do we where are we now looking if we're pan is the future and look back what currently just barely above 2% of the world having
Asia to bitcoin even fewer that are actually using it to transmit funds most people holding it to get exposure but it's growing, you know, this thing has been growing for 11 years non-stop at doubling every 12 months. So that puts us a 4% then 8% and so forth and we're currently on track for 1 billion people having exposure to bitcoin is an asset class in the next four years.
Years, so by 2025 1/8 of the world population will have exposure to this monetary base. So it's happening very very quickly. And in terms of Internet era like where we are where we are right now. It's equivalent of 1994 for the rollout of the internet and I believe from memory some of my better pull it up. It's were in the next four years. We're going to teleport into 2005 for the for the internet.
Equivalent, which you know, if you think about that like 94 was very slow dial-up internet very few people used it, but it was growing quickly and then 2005 we had everybody on Facebook. The iPhone was just around the corner and the internet was available to everybody on the planet if they needed the so yeah, the next four years is going to bring a lot of changes to the financial system. That's for sure.
Sure, and why do you think that timeline is being sped up for crypto? Is it because we already have the internet built now is that why you know, you were saying this sleep of 10 years in the internet ERA with is going to be accomplished in five years in crypto. Yeah new technology bhushan older Technologies and it's the propagation of information goes faster and faster. So, you know if Bitcoin could be built on sailing ships and we can try.
Met transactions on a piece of paper which you can actually do obviously it would take months for that piece of paper your transmitted to another continent, but now we can transmit that in milliseconds across the internet. And so so that's speeding things up and you'll see if you plot the progress and Adoption of new technology we call this S curves because that's Matt's how how much penetrate the rate of penetration they slow it start at the
Start they go exponential and then they kind of taper off as you reach saturation. Those eskers are long and flat and slow for you know, the earlier Technologies like radio the in TV and then we had you know, I guess what do we have mobile phones and internet and so each curve became faster and faster and so it's a natural natural tree and that this technology but coin expands faster. Yeah. It's it's probably the biggest
Thing that's happened to money since the invention of money. I would say it's not just one and a hundred year thing. It's a one and Humanity event. Yeah, I would agree. I also heard you make comparisons to the way Bitcoin trades or the way people invest in Bitcoin to shares of Internet startups. Can you talk a little bit about how those are similar and or different?
I think I'd kind of covered it earlier and there, you know the trajectory is very very upward like a seed investor, you know, I'll put it this way when Bitcoin was around even say four years ago in the times before that the first six or seven years, everyone said this thing is not real. It's a bubble. It's going to pop and no one gets 10,000 x return in such a compressed amount of years. Like that's that's a
The pebble that anyone and technology that has invested in sea level startups with a valuation of maybe typically a c-level startup is valued at six million dollars at the at the start and if they go IPO and then become the next, you know Uber Amazon or so forth you are now talking in the tends to a hundred billion dollars of valuation. So in that Journey takes around six to
ten years and so right there in new technology investors at the seed level are very comfortable with the idea of getting 10,000 x on a winning technology. And that's essentially what we're seeing with Bitcoin those types of gains are very very routine in new technology rollouts. The only difference right now is that Bitcoin just so happened to have a publicly traded oil price that everybody could see and
Retail anybody in the world had access to buy about asset right at the get-go and interestingly the institution the smartest money in the room. They weren't allowed to because Wrigley three bars prevented them from actually directly buying the asset. So it's a kind of flipped the whole thing on its ends where Bitcoin was open to everybody else except the big money.
So I find that very interesting.
You know, the answer thing thing for me Willie is when I first got bald and you're involved in Bitcoin long before I was on my involvement began in early 2016, when the founder of real division a role Paul sent me a chart of Bitcoin, you know, I get an email from a Rahul house it chart of Bitcoin. It's like February March 2016, and we're all says your Tardis Peter. What do you make of this thing? And I looked at it and I heard about
Bitcoin kind of in the periphery I understood it exists at I didn't know much about it this thought it was just a currency currency money. That would become another be me Davey or pet rock and I work at this car that he sends I go. Wow. This is crazy. And that's when he introduced me to his exchange. I opened an account. I get involved in Bitcoin like March April 2016 initially for me Bitcoin was a chart then Bitcoin.
And just a trade, you know, as a Trader in the u.s. I've always measured wealth based on US dollars right now. I want to collect US dollars. I want to look and know that my US dollar worth goes up and a steady rate maybe has some jumps along the way and so it kind of was just trade but I think broadly within the last year my mindset has really changed is that Bitcoin is where I would avoid
want it all my wealth at some point in time. I really look at it very different because if my goal as a traitor has been to accumulate more our US dollars what that now tells me is I had a wrong I'd around goal because my goal was to accumulate the weakest asset in the world the most depreciating asset the world and that's US Dollars. And so I've my mind said really changed within the last year in terms of
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Now and Peter, you've also kind of been talking about the way that I think at least in my mind what you're saying is that Bitcoin maybe is maturing a little bit you tweeted recently about what you were calling it an orderly bull Trend saying that the 2015 to 2017 both cycle saw a Corrections exceeding 30 percent two of them exceeding 40 percent and then you wrote with the exception of the March 20 20 smash that December 2018 to present bull trend has been extraordinarily order.
So far, so what would you say is the significance of that?
Well, I think what we pointed that out is we have major institutions major trading operations invest in operations who are just willing to take offers off the table and as a result, of course, no Market goes screwed up day after day week after week month after month. So we have volatility. We've had close to a 30% Oh right around the 30 percent correction of one point another correction of
X percent that's not the end of the world markets have correction That's What markets do they go up. They go down. The important point is what's what are they going on on a more sustainable basis, you know to me I've got starting to look at Bitcoin as we all talk about the evil Central bench. Everyone's talking about the central bank's destroying the monetary system and I'm starting to look at Bitcoin as as a PO WS asset and that could mean power of the
I could be the money of the people the people's money and still Bitcoin is really the currency of the world of the world population is you know, it's a PO W that we're prisoners of War to the central banks and all of a sudden Bitcoin is our own answer to Fiat currencies. And I think that's what's reflected in the fact that there's so much interest to actually own that
currency.
I love that. Yeah, I because there is there's actually a Bitcoin specific term poww which stands for something very particular to
quite so at first I was like wait, what is he talking about?
But we don't have to get into that has to do with the mining. But anyway, well then what were you gonna say? This is saying that yeah, it's like really going back to the first chart of German Max against US Dollars. We've been trading to stack more German Max in a time of hyperinflation versus stacking more Bitcoin. I think that
If you be anyways been a mystery long enough starts to have that sort of mindset shift and and suddenly you realize. Wow. This is real. This is the new monetary standard. That's the measuring stick and which we start to measure everything and I mean certainly when I get US dollars or any kind of fear, I feel like this thing's a hot potato. It's going to it's not going to be worth much soon. We had like 25 30 percent more coin more US Dollars being printed in the
last year alone. So I think most people are really in their motor really packing it somewhere where there's real estate stocks or will Bitcoin and to that point there's about 500 trillion dollars of assets in the world that people are packing money into as a store of value. And so that is the that is the scale of capital that Bitcoins going to take bites out of
No, we like to call Bitcoin this digital gold. Like it's this really nice to understand thing that traditional asset managers traditional investors can turn grasp but really gold only 10 trillion dollars. Only four trillion dollars is used for financial means we were like Bitcoins already a quarter of the way there and it's not going to stop you've got like stock markets that are near a hundred trillion dollars. You've got real estate which
Which is like 220 250 trillion dollars. Most people that hold these assets aren't looking for a house or two or five to live in the holding. It is is store of value. So once you get a glimpse of something as easy to access like Bitcoin without the trouble holding assets, like real estate. It's going to take a big chunk out of that. So there's no way that coins going to stop at the market cap of gold which is
Trillian, it's going to go a lot higher which means that we're going to be going into the millions of dollars per coin is which is kind of hard to believe right now. But if you look at the sheer fundamentals and stretch it off over the long term, that's how cheap but coin is today and that's why the institutions are buying it but buying it because they think it's going to be as good as gold but it's going to go a lot
higher.
I have a question on that will let you know when we when I look back at Bitcoin as a student of Praise You know, we've seen big runner-ups followed by 80% the corrections we've seen that in the previous three parabolic advances that were violated. We saw Bitcoin setback between 89% and I guess my own sense is that we've seen the last 80 percent correction, and I'm just curious. Let's say we go
Oh to your three hundred four hundred thousand dollar Mark by the end of this year. What is a big correction in the future as we look forward and might assume that Bitcoin will take our rightful place as as a global Reserve currency. So to speak or a global Reserve assets will just be what kind of volatility do we see five years from now ten years from
now. It's a really good question. I'm not sure in the first step of it is once
We top out. I'm not sure how far will fall back this time under the current situation. We typically see, you know, an 80% pullback $300,000 plus 80 percent pullback kind of brings us down into the one trillion dollar range and I can see right now the price discovery of Bitcoin is very very strong in this Zone around the one trillion dollars. You can look at that in terms.
The price in which coins last moved on the network and its really clustering strong at this zone of one trillion dollars and you'll look at all the past bull markets. You can see is you roll back the clock you get this very strong cluster at the base of the bull run, which is what were forming now and then we go really high and then it's almost like when we topped out we come back to revisit that that very strong cluster bounce off. There is a rejection off that low before we move.
Into the next bull market, but that pattern plays out then. Yeah, maybe we go to 300 we come back down to the same here, but I'm not sure like I kind of visit the stuff one month at a time quarter by quarter or sometimes just on what I'm seeing through demand and Supply on The Ledger. There is a general Trend downwards and it is going to Crazy predictable Trend downwards and volatility. I think actually, you know, like were would you to stay
To drop down into the lower volatility arrange that well, I don't have the charts right off a hit off hands, but I think it was surprised a lot of people how low the volatility can drop and it Beyond a certain but part of size of capital base, you know volatility drops to zero because it becomes the new monetary base. If it does become this unit of account, obviously these different variations on that theme, we could be part of a basket of
assets that becomes the new monetary base But ultimately the policy will drop very very low because the new monetary standard part of it Peter. I wanted to ask you about something that you wrote on Twitter where you were criticizing the people who have laser eyes on their Twitter profiles and you call that the single most bearish factor for Bitcoin. Why is
that? Well, if I'm not perish in terms of although suddenly go into a bear Market what I'm talking about is there are
Certain things that are somebody who is an owner of that coin. I know that people use the word hobbling. I just can't go there at mid 70s. I'm not sure I can doubt the vernacular of the new technology or new monetary system. So I still get referred to as holding. I am the L before the D instead of after the D. But yeah, I mean over enthusiasm on any Market is always kind of warning not to turn from a hold to a bear or the liquid.
Wait long Holdings or the liquid a I'd established position, but it indicates people are it's gotten a little frothy and you know, all of a sudden when I saw people who I respect that on Twitter as seasoned reasonable investors all of a sudden with a new pitcher with laser eyes. I kind of go. Well, let's stack back up moment here. I actually even I even direct tweeted a good
Mine who is really a fine investor and it's been very very constructed for Bitcoin for a long period of time and just said hey you have redo your picture. Will you please it's scary because you know more people put the laser eyes, you know that least the markets going to get choppy for a while. I'm going to stop going straight up. So I think you know we need to be alert for that type of thing is when people start pounding their chest and public eye on bitcoin time.
Want Bitcoin look at me I have laser eyes. Yeah, you know that's always going to be a sign that the marks of police got to take a
rest. All right. Yeah. I was just so curious because obviously that is something all the corners are doing and I thought it was kind of fun that you took a contrarian stance to that. So to wrap up I wanted to ask you for the aspiring chartist in the audience what particular metrics or trading patterns it is that you
I think are worth paying attention to and
why?
Well, I mean, let me start off by saying I think Bitcoin charts extremely well, but it charts extremely well for somebody that wants to look at the forest and not the treats is you know, somebody who's looking at 1 minute charts five minute charts 10 minute charts. I've noticed those are not really reliable chart. You have to look at Bitcoin in terms of chart construction at least on daily charts. If not on weekly charge, you know, you can't look at it every day.
Every minute. Yeah, you've got to really step back and look at it a bigger picture. And that's the advice. I would give somebody don't get so involved that you're buying and selling bit coin 10 times a day. Look at Bitcoin from an historical perspective. This is not something to be playing around with it something to be owned. And so I think there's danger of people getting too short term in Bitcoin because at some point time they're going to get shaken out of their position and that's when Bitcoin really
Has a period of strength and so I think holding L before the D is the thing to do but for those who really are interested in charting, I bring them back to the 1934 book by the senior editor of Forbes Magazine Richard W shabak who wrote the book technical analysis and stock market profits excellent book, but it's a great primer on China type of chart construction. I've seen in bed.
Wind watches triangles ShakeOut trendlines head and shoulders and that sort of thing. But I do have a chart there that you have on the current chart outlook for Bitcoin. I just want to point that up before we end here but you know on that chart what I'm really seeing as I think that currently Bitcoin in this current bitcoin will Market from a charting standpoint. We're
Were the 2015 to 2017 bull market was in april-may Period of 2017. It's kind of where we're at. And that shows that I think we're at that midpoint pause. We're in 2017 Bitcoin swirled around for a month or two before. We saw the final move up and you'll note that the midpoint in 2015 to 17 bull market was that about
To have 60% of the total move if that's true, you know really that points that the type of price level that will he's talking about and it's that $200,000 plus is really where this Market would take it. If this chart interpretation is correct
and Willie. What about you? I kind of agree with where we are in that market the yeah, that's really interesting and trade Bitcoin on any any time cycled is it's possible whatever floats your boat.
Really you can trade the small time Cycles to get a feel of how the markets work on a micro level but coin is interesting because it's the only acid in the world other than the other cryptos that has a blockchain but it is actually the only one there has adopt Block Chain that has Capital flows that is organic. And so, you know, I have a partnership with glass node and they provide about over 300 charts which those 300 metrics and they measured different.
Of the network and the whole industry the capital flows going through it. And so it's almost like a ezg that's hooked up to this animal called Bitcoin and it's a kind of a, you know, detective story of like, whoa, what's happening here at least check Wales buying is institutions is you know, whatever's happening this week or that week. You can come down to a diagnosis of probable diagnosis. And so
that's the new thing with Bitcoin is that we have this open transparent Ledger where we can visibly see what's actually happening and then you can kind of translate that and make predictions or explanations of what's actually happening with the the price chart which will then sort of Express itself through tinku trading patterns because Traders are trading around these very specific light patterns. So there's fundamental demand and Supply on the blockchain and that are expressed through these technical trading pit.
And since so if you're trading Bitcoin a full picture would be on chain analysis with the technical in mating the two together and then you it's that's and that's a new thing with them. Cryptocurrencies. Really. Yeah and what I love about the way Willie you do your analysis is that you come up with really creative ways to describe it like whale spawning season when he saw the whales coming in and buying up a lot of coins or recently. I notice you haven't
and tweeting about what you call the Rick Astley score,
which I'm sure people can figure that out.
But yeah, it's very fun following your analysis for for that reason. All right. Well, this has been so fun. Thank you both so much for coming on to the crypto to the real Vision cryptic Gathering.
Thank you for having me Laura and it's always a pleasure to participate with Willie. I always learn something. I didn't know before and this has been real.
Different. Thanks Laura, and it's been, you know absolute pleasure at being on air with Peta. He's an absolute link embeds. It's a great the onion with Peter. Yes. This isn't great. Alright. Well, thank you everyone. Thanks so much for joining us today to learn more about Peter and Willie check out the show notes. This episode of Unchained is produced by me Laura Shin with help from Anthony unit. Daniel knows Mark Murdoch and real Vision. Thanks for listening.
